A “Mug Bet” is a term used to describe a bet that is seen as unfavourable or unwise, often placed by an inexperienced or casual bettor, also known as a “mug.” Mug Bets have a high likelihood of losing in the long-run due lack of value, or insufficient research. In contrast, more experienced bettors aim to find “value bets,” where the odds offered are better than the actual probability of the event occurring.

The vast majority of casual sports bettors can be classified as “Mug Bettors” or “Mugs” for short, as harsh as that sounds.

I wanted to find out how much regular football punters are likely to lose over the course of a season, and whether I could defy the odds by generating a profit from Mug Betting. So I placed an equal £5 bet on every Premier League fixture for the remainder of the season. I based all of my selections on one thing: my opinion.

How do you think I performed? Read on to find out…

The Mug Betting Experiment Inspiration

Every seasoned bettor knows someone, or follows someone on Twitter, who claims to “smash the bookies.” But do these successful gamblers ever quit their jobs and make a living solely from sports betting?

Not in my experience.

Needless to say, I often doubt the success stories I hear and read about within the sports betting community, especially if the approach doesn’t involve using a mathematical model.

Nonetheless, I was intrigued to see if I could succeed by backing one selection in every remaining Premier League fixture for the season, equipped with only one tool: my opinion. I wanted to emulate the average gambler to test whether there’s a skill element — which cannot be quantified — that impacts sports betting performance.

Thus, the “Mug Betting Experiment” was formed. I decided to use the Betfair exchange Match Odds market to ensure I obtained the best available odds at the time of betting. I posted my bet selections before each match day.

What I Hoped To Answer

1. How well can I perform by relying solely on my intuition and knowledge of Premier League football?
2. Will my understanding of value betting benefit the experiment, or will it be worthless without proper analysis?
3. What expectations should mug punters have when betting on multiple fixtures over the course of a season?
4. Can I remain unbiased in my selections despite my allegiance to Spurs?

What I Predicted

In my original version of this blog post, I predicted that my Mug Bets would break even. In reality, the outcome could have been much better or much, much worse.

This prediction might sound pessimistic, but I have always believed in the efficiency of the betting markets. I’ve never trusted my ability to beat those markets using guesswork alone.

The Results Went Exactly As Expected

It’s spooky how accurate my prediction for the Mug Bets experiment turned out to be.

After placing all 270 bets, the result was a 0.00% ROI once the 5% Betfair commission was applied. The final profit was a mere +£4.33.

Think about that for a moment. After 270 mug bets, I was almost exactly even.

Feel free to check the Week-by-week updates if you find it hard to believe.

Placing 270 bets provided a reasonable insight into my performance. To put it into perspective, it’s like placing 2 bets every weekend for 2.59 years (assuming no summer break).

It’s safe to say I had no edge in my “strategy”.

How Did I Predict The Outcome So Accurately?

Before the experiment, I knew from experience that by using the betting exchange and adhering to a strict fixed stake, I had a good chance of breaking even or losing only a small percentage of the total stake (after commission).

Therefore, it seemed logical that over a sample of 270 mug bets, I wouldn’t lose or gain much profit. I was right, down to two decimal places.

What Do The Results Prove?

The Need For Value

In any type of gambling, there’s an inherent ‘edge’—usually in favour of the bookmaker or casino. A successful sports bettor must find favourable odds to gain an edge and earn a profit over the long term.

Importantly, gaining an edge is not about “picking winners” or relying on good fortune. It’s about systematically identifying value odds so that you eventually come out on top.

Most bettors don’t have any advantage—I certainly didn’t in my experiment. I simply backed what I thought looked like value or what I ‘felt’ was a good bet. The approach wasn’t sophisticated enough.

Ultimately, even a seasoned sports bettor cannot succeed without a proper betting model to support their selections.

To learn more, read my article on Value Betting.

The Superiority of Betting Exchange Odds

Quietly, I am quite proud of the 0.00% ROI I achieved in the Mug Betting Experiment. However, I have the betting exchange to thank for that.

If I had placed all my bets with bookmakers, the result would have been significantly worse.

Bookmakers offer much lower odds than betting exchanges. How much lower depends on the site, markets, size of the odds, and liquidity/demand, among other factors. Generally, you can expect the odds at bookmakers to be 5-15% lower than Betfair for Premier League fixtures.

Considering the best and worst-case scenarios, the results would be:

• 5% lower: -£35.63 (-2.64% ROI)
• 15% lower: -£115.57 (-8.56% ROI)

That’s a big difference.

This experiment truly demonstrates how much better off sports bettors are when using betting exchanges.

In essence, while you and I may have more football knowledge than others, profitability in betting demands insight beyond what we individually know about the game.

I hope this experiment provides you with some perspective and helps you to maintain realistic expectations when it comes to casual sports betting.